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2026-11-05 10:54:27 The outlook for gold prices will depend on the outcome of the situation in the Middle East, Citi opined in a research report. Under its base case (with an implied probability of 60%), if the Strait of Hormuz reopens before year-end and tensions between Yemen and Saudi Arabia de-fuse, gold prices were projected to have enormous upside potential, with a 0-3 month TP of USD4,500 per ounce and a 6-12 month TP of USD5,000 per ounce. Meanwhile, a sharp pullback in oil prices could prompt the Fed to shift toward interest rate cuts, boosting investment demand for gold and reigniting bullish momentum. In addition, lower oil prices could support buying demand from emerging markets by enhancing purchasing power. As for Citi's bull case (with an implied probability of 10%), assuming the US and Iran quickly reach an agreement and oil prices plummet, prompting the Fed to rapidly turn dovish, the USD would weaken sharply while cross-asset risk appetite rebounds, driving gold prices even higher. Under the bear case (with an implied probability of 30%), continued disruption Hormuz is expected to limit further downside in gold prices, with the trough potentially reaching USD3,500 per ounce. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |