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2026-10-23 14:07:53 JPMorgan released a research report stating that Tesla (TSLA.US) updated the progress of its Optimus humanoid robot at its 3Q26 earnings conference, confirming that production has started in Fremont and indicating that deliveries to other companies may begin before the end of next year. However, mass production will be gradual, with production guidance before external sales at 10,000 to 20,000 units, below the market's most optimistic expectations. The bank noted that Elon Musk described the manufacturing process as an S-curve, where the slowest component or process will determine the overall ramp-up pace. He also emphasized that robotic hands remain the main hardware bottleneck, and challenges persist in achieving human-like dexterity, reliability and onboard intelligence. Tesla's near-term focus is on internal deployment within its own factories to handle dangerous or repetitive tasks, while external commercial deliveries are targeted for around the end of 2027, with consumer applications taking even longer. JPMorgan's observations at the China International Industry Fair (CIIF) also showed that actual demand remains concentrated among ecosystem suppliers in sensors, 3D vision, data collection, reducers and dexterous hands. Demand is still mainly for research and development, pilot projects and data collection, rather than large-scale end deployment. Against this backdrop, the bank has become more selective on the broader humanoid robot supply chain, believing that the recent rebound in Chinese robot manufacturers driven by YUSHU TECHNOLOGY (688836.SH) and UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880.HK) was largely sentiment-driven, with expectations likely to reset over the next one to three months. JSHL (601100.SH) and SANHUA (02050.HK) are viewed as the best Tesla robot supply chain plays, as both are confirmed suppliers with attractive valuations. The bank's ranking is: JSHL (601100.SH) = SANHUA (02050.HK), both rated Overweight > LEADER HARMONIOUS (688017.SH) rated Overweight > ORBBEC (688322.SH) rated Overweight > INOVANCE TECH (300124.SZ) rated Neutral > UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880.HK) rated Neutral > ESTUN (02715.HK) = Unitree Robotics, both rated Underweight. (su/ad)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |