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2026-09-03 13:24:56 JPM released a report on China's AI infrastructure ecosystem, stating that the rapid advancement of local open-source models toward the global frontier, increased AI infrastructure investment by major cloud service providers, and the fast development of domestic ecosystems amid overseas chip restrictions are driving a rapid takeoff of the AI ecosystem. The bank expects domestic AI computing power demand to record a CAGR of about 80% YoY to support strong inference token consumption. By 2028, foundry and HBM capacity are expected to become major bottlenecks. The bank believes China could satisfy 80% of AI infrastructure demand with domestic chips by 2028, up from 40% in 2025. To bridge the performance gap of single chips, Chinese AI chipmakers are expected to aggressively adopt advanced packaging, interconnect technologies and system-level optimization, benefiting backend service providers and server ODM/OEM firms. Aggressive localization is also expected to benefit power, cooling and energy storage suppliers, while reviving growth for local data center operators. JPM expects inference-driven computing power demand to grow at a CAGR of about 80% YoY through 2030, accounting for 85% of total demand. Corresponding AI chip unit demand is expected to record a CAGR of about 40% over the same period, reaching about 14 million units by 2030. Based on supply estimates, domestic AI chip supply in 2026/2027/2028 is projected at about 2 million, 3 million and 5 million units respectively. Local foundries are expected to add 150,000 to 200,000 wafers of advanced logic capacity per month over the next two to three years, although yield rates and technology migration remain challenging. HBM demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of about 60% from 2026 to 2030, and fully meeting local demand by 2030 would require HBM capacity of about 200,000 wafers per month. Incremental AI-related power demand from 2026 to 2030 is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 50%, driving structural transformation in liquid cooling, 800V DC/solid-state transformer architectures and prefabricated power modules. JPM's top picks include ILUVATAR COREX (09903.HK), NAURA (002371.SZ), AMEC (688012.SH), CHANG ELEC TECH (600584.SH), V-TEST TECH. (688372.SH), HUAQIN (603296.SH), VNET Group, Inc. (VNET.US), SMIC (00981.HK), MINTH GROUP (00425.HK), WEICHAI POWER (000338.SZ) and WASION HOLDINGS (03393.HK), among others, which were also listed as potential beneficiaries. (da/a)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |