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2026-09-03 12:17:40 JPM released a research report on China's logistics, express parcel and e-commerce sectors, stating that J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) was the only company to both beat expectations and raise guidance, reinforcing its execution premium and global footprint. The broker named J&T EXPRESS-W and Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM.US) as its top picks, followed by SF HOLDING (06936.HK) (002352.SZ). ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057.HK) (ZTO.US) and JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) were rated Neutral. The broker said parcel volume in July rose 4.1% YoY, express delivery revenue increased 8.1% YoY, and revenue per parcel climbed 3.8% YoY, reflecting improving monetization and pricing discipline. Market leaders such as STO (002468.SZ) and YTO EXPRESS (600233.SH) expanded market share, while YUNDA (002120.SZ) continued to lag behind. China's postal and express delivery industry's 15th Five-Year Plan targets express delivery revenue of RMB2 trillion and parcel volume of 270 billion pieces by 2030, implying CAGR of around 6%. Policy focus remains on curbing "involution-style" competition and promoting quality, efficiency and value-added businesses rather than simply pursuing volume growth. JPM downgraded ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057.HK) / ZTO.US from Overweight to Neutral, cutting TP by about 24% and 25% to USD22 and HKD169 respectively, while extending the TP horizon to December 2027. The broker also lowered its 2027-2028 revenue and earnings forecasts by around 3% to 5% due to weaker-than-expected parcel volume growth outlook. ZTO's 2Q revenue rose 23% YoY to RMB14.55 billion, operating profit increased 30% YoY, and adjusted net profit climbed 50% YoY, all beating market expectations. However, management lowered full-year parcel volume guidance to YoY growth of 6% to 10%. For JD LOGISTICS, JPM had already downgraded the stock to Neutral after results, reducing its 2027-2028 earnings forecasts by around 7% and cutting TP by 21% to HKD11. Second-quarter revenue increased 24.3% YoY to RMB64.1 billion, while non-IFRS profit rose only 2.2% YoY. Margin fell 0.9 ppts YoY to 4.1%. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM.US) maintained its Overweight rating and USD11 TP unchanged. Second-quarter revenue rose 4.4% YoY to RMB3.38 billion, while completed orders increased 12.7% YoY, though full-year order growth guidance was lowered to 12% to 15%. SF HOLDING (06936.HK) maintained Overweight, with JPM believing supply chain momentum could drive a margin inflection point. J&T EXPRESS-W (01519.HK) also maintained Overweight with a TP of HKD14 and remained the sector top pick. (su)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |