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Citi: HK Property Sector Near-term Momentum Under Pressure; Mid-term Upcycle Remains on Track
2026-06-26 11:48:26
Citi’s Property & Financials Conference was attended by 14 property companies and global investors. The broker's report noted that investors are generally concerned about the impact of China’s outbound direct investment (ODI) regulations on Hong Kong’s residential and office markets. Listed property companies indicated that no obvious impact has been observed so far, although some companies pointed out that transaction volumes may soften in the near term and the momentum of home price increases could moderate.

The broker forecast share prices of Hong Kong property stocks to remain rattled between June and July, while the strong results for 1H26 to be announced in August may serve as the next potential catalyst.

Despite sentiment overhang, property companies at the Conference have not observed any substantive impact from mainland capital controls, with the proportion of non-Hong Kong resident buyers remaining below 10%. The broker projected that primary residential registrations in 1H26 could reach approximately 12,500 units, potentially marking a 21-year high, while secondary transaction volumes may elevate by 35% YoY.

In the office market, spot rents for super Grade A offices in Central are gradually rebounding, mainly supported by the lack of new supply and a re-centralization trend, which enhances landlords’ bargaining power. In the retail segment, some luxury landlords expected that even if tenant sales performance remains solid, renewal rents in 2026 will still face negative growth, with a return to positive growth only in 2027.

Citi maintained its ratings and target prices unchanged for individual Hong Kong property stocks. Its sector top picks include SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK), SHK PPT (00016.HK), CK ASSET (01113.HK) and LINK REIT (00823.HK).
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AASTOCKS Financial News
Website: www.aastocks.com