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BABA-W Dives 4%+ to 52-Week Low; Nomura Cuts ADR TP to USD178
2026-06-25 10:48:28 BABA-W (09988.HK) opened 2.11% lower today and once hit a 52-week trough of HKD94.55. It last traded at HKD95.25, down 4.18%, with 48.3724 million shares traded, involving HKD4.627 billion. Owing to the high base effect and macro headwinds, China’s e-commerce market is expected to weaken further in the June quarter of FY2027 (1QFY27), Nomura said in a research report. According to data from independent research firm Syntun, during the month-long "618" promotion season, the GMV of integrated e-commerce platforms grew only 1% YoY, reflecting downbeat retail market conditions. Based on industry checks, the broker noted that, apart from a few major platforms such as Douyin that recorded positive growth, most platforms including BABA-W (09988.HK) may post YoY GMV slide. Against this backdrop, Nomura revised its forecast for BABA-W’s same-store CMR for the June quarter to flat YoY, while reported CMR is projected to decline 8% YoY. The broker also lowered its FY2027 consolidated EBITA forecast by 15% to RMB101 billion to reflect profit pressure from weak e-commerce sales. However, losses from Quick Commerce during the period are expected to narrow radically QoQ to RMB14 billion. The broker highlighted that the strong momentum of Alibaba Cloud is likely to offset the downturn in the e-commerce business. It forecast Alibaba Cloud’s revenue for the June quarter to add 41% YoY, above market expectations of 37.5%, with EBITA margin expected to improve to 11% from 8.8% in the same period last year. As profit growth of Alibaba Cloud is expediting and is poised to gradually replace e-commerce as the key long-term earnings driver, Nomura believed the market is underestimating its immense potential in cloud computing and AI. The broker maintained its Buy rating but lowered its ADR target price from USD207 to USD178. ~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com | |