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HSBC Research: 618 E-commerce Growth Slackens; Alibaba TP Cut to USD176
2026-06-24 11:22:10
Total GMV of the 2026 "618" shopping festival gained 0.9% YoY, marking a significant slowdown from the double-digit growth seen during the 2025 "618" and "Double 11" periods, HSBC Global Investment Research said in a report, citing data.

The broker believed the deceleration in e-commerce industry growth was attributable to a higher base in trade-in categories such as home appliances and smartphones (NBS: down 8.5% YoY in May 2026, vs a 44% MoM hike in May 2025), weakening consumer confidence, and government efforts to promote fair competition among e-commerce platforms.

By platform, Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA.US) slightly outperformed the market, while PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD.US), JD.com, Inc. (JD.US) and KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK) lagged behind.

HSBC Global Investment Research lowered its 2026 revenue forecasts for the e-commerce sector to reflect weaker-than-expected performance in 2Q26, but expected earnings changes to remain moderate, given improved cost and subsidy controls, including narrowing losses in food delivery operations.

The broker cut its US-listed TP for Alibaba from USD180 to USD176 and maintained a Buy rating; it kept JD.com's TP at USD37; and trimmed PDD's TP from USD145 to USD144, with Buy ratings maintained for both companies.
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