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2026-11-04 12:11:41 Nomura published a research report stating that Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) delivered fiscal 4Q results for the quarter ended September that beat market expectations, but maintained a cautious view on Apple's supply chain. Due to rising memory costs, Apple's supply chain is expected to face tougher YoY comparisons from 4Q this year to 1Q next year. Nomura expects suppliers' revenue from Apple in 1H27 may generally decline by double digits YoY, due to pre-build inventory of older models in 1H26, soft demand for the iPhone 18 Pro, and cautious demand sentiment amid rising memory costs. Nomura expects sentiment toward Apple suppliers to become more cautious in the coming months until the bank gains better visibility in 2Q27 on the new iPhone 19/20 Pro and Duo 2 models for 2H27. The bank lowered its 2026 iPhone production forecast by 2% from 260 million units to 254.4 million units, implying YoY growth of 5.6%, and introduced a fiscal 2027 iPhone production forecast of 250 million units, implying a YoY decline of 1.7%. Meanwhile, the bank cut its MacBook production forecast for this year to 25.5 million units, while the iPad production forecast for this year was lowered from 44 million units to 40 million units, with further declines expected next year. For next year, iPhone production in 1H27 may be very weak (down 13.5% YoY), due to the pull-forward build of iPhone 18 Pro/Pro Max models in 2H26, as well as cautious positioning on lower-end models including the new iPhone 18/18Air/18e because of elevated cost structures. iPhone production in 2H27 may rebound (up 7.5% YoY) as Apple is preparing to launch the iPhone 19 Pro/Pro Max, iPhone 20 Pro/Pro Max and iPhone Duo 2 in 2H27. Nomura believes that if the iPhone 19 Pro and the 20th anniversary edition iPhone (iPhone 20 Pro) are launched together, the market must consider the production/yield risks and high costs associated with the new manufacturing architecture of the anniversary model. However, it is still too early to conclude whether all prepared new iPhone models will be launched in 2027. If all are launched, there will be a record-high total of eight new iPhone models in 2027 (three in 1H27 - 18, 18e and 18Air; and five in 2H27), marking a record level in Apple's iPhone history. (sl/da)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |