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2026-06-24 12:32:51 HSBC Global Investment Research said in a report that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has improved following the signing of a memorandum of understanding, with transit volumes more than doubling. However, flows remain constrained by mines, channel closures and uncertainty. With headline risk still elevated, traffic is likely to remain highly volatile, while Iran retains leverage through transit permit requirements and potential additional charges. Although output in the Gulf region is recovering ?????, a full system-wide normalization may still take several months. HSBC Global Investment Research noted that headline risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remains high. Although Iran again declared the strait "closed" on June 20, observed vessel movements indicate directional improvement since the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was signed. Amid significant noise, the bank prioritizes physical data over news flow as a more reliable gauge of short-term conditions. It concludes that as traffic shifts from sporadic "leakage-style" transit toward a more sustained recovery, market conditions have improved. Nevertheless, flows remain volatile and capacity-constrained, suggesting that even if the broader de-escalation trend holds, normalization is likely to be uneven. High-frequency data show a clear rebound trend despite daily fluctuations. Between June 17 and 21, daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz more than doubled to over 20 vessels per day, peaking at 30 on June 20, the highest level since the brief reopening in mid-April. In volume terms, the bank estimates that about 5 million barrels per day of liquids (crude oil and refined products) transited the strait last week, up from around 1.5 million barrels per day in May. Implied volumes peaked at about 8 million barrels per day on June 21, roughly half the level required for a full restoration of Gulf exports, including rerouted pipeline flows. Importantly, inbound vessel numbers have also improved, signaling a recovery in shipowner confidence. However, as long as the central channel remains closed due to mines, forcing traffic into narrower corridors, throughput will stay capped; mine clearance could take up to four weeks. Uncertainty stemming from Iran may become structural. The day after Iran announced the strait's "closure", inbound flows fell sharply. This episode, together with the Strait of Hormuz maritime authority's requirement for vessels to apply for transit permits, suggests that even under the US-Iran framework, Iran retains a reusable lever to periodically heighten perceived disruption risks or increase administrative frictions without fully shutting the strait. Production recovery in the Gulf has begun, though the process may be uneven. Initial gains reflect previously stranded fully laden tankers departing, while sustained exports require the return of empty tankers and market confidence in predictable sailing conditions. Gulf countries are moving quickly to restore exports and output. Saudi Arabia has indicated it could return to pre-conflict production within two weeks once logistics normalize. The UAE and Kuwait have notified buyers to resume liftings within the Gulf. Iraq has instructed operators to raise output to above 3 million barrels per day, with southern production reportedly recovering to around 1.5 million barrels per day. Iran has also resumed loadings after roughly six weeks of disruption, while US sanctions on its oil have been suspended for 60 days. Based on the above, the bank maintains its prior model assumption that it will take 3.5 months for the overall system to return to near-normal levels. (ad/da)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |