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M Stanley: China CIO 2H26 Survey Sees Rebound in IT Budgets; Application Layer Expected to Be Biggest Beneficiary in Next AI Phase; Cuts TPs for MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) and Z.AI (02513.HK)
2026-11-10 15:09:31
Morgan Stanley published a research report stating that, according to its AlphaWise China Chief Information Officer (CIO) Survey for 2H26, China's artificial intelligence market is entering a commercialization phase, with strong enterprise adoption intentions. The bank expects the value of AI investments to gradually shift upward along the stack from energy, chips, cloud and model layers, eventually reaching the application layer. Morgan Stanley believes enterprise software, AI agents and industry applications could become the biggest beneficiaries in the next phase.

The bank noted that surveyed Chinese CIOs raised their expected 2026 IT spending growth to 6.1%, higher than 4.8% in 1H26. Preliminary budget growth expectations for 2027 accelerated to 9%. Company-wide technology upgrades, at 41%, became the top factor affecting IT spending for the first time, surpassing business growth (30%) and the macro environment (25%), marking the first such shift since the AI era began. The upward revision in 2026 budgets was mainly driven by hardware, while software and services budgets were squeezed. However, software and services spending is expected to grow by more than 9% in 2027, compared with 5.5% for hardware.

About 56% of enterprises funded AI projects with entirely new budgets, compared with 45% in 1H26, indicating that more AI spending is incremental rather than replacement spending. Enterprise AI adoption has progressed well, with 37% already launching their first AI/large language model projects, versus 27% in 1H26. Private deployment and domain-specific models were the most favored, while DeepSeek showed strong momentum in the enterprise market.

Morgan Stanley said the main constraints on enterprise AI adoption are data readiness, security, model reliability and cost optimization, rather than demand or model capability, and these areas also present significant opportunities for software vendors. For ERP AI applications, the bank recommended KINGDEE INT'L (00268.HK). In private cloud and security, it recommended SANGFOR (300454.SZ). It was also positive on the cloud business of BABA-W (09988.HK) and the Workbuddy product of TENCENT (00700.HK). The Greater China IT services and software sector was rated Equalweight.

The bank raised its TP for KINGDEE INT'L (00268.HK) from HKD11.4 to HKD12.8 and maintained an Overweight rating, while raising its 2027 and 2028 revenue and earnings forecasts. It sharply cut the TP for MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) by 66.7% from HKD900 to HKD300, while maintaining an Overweight rating, mainly due to a higher weighted average cost of capital and increased R&D expenses for training larger-parameter foundation models. It also lowered the TP for Z.AI (02513.HK) by 61.1% from HKD1,800 to HKD700, while maintaining an Overweight rating, and lowered revenue forecasts while raising R&D expense forecasts. (su/da)~

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This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation.