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2026-10-28 10:30:35 CLSA said in a report that POP MART (09992.HK) remains in an adjustment phase. The broker lowered its sales forecasts for 2026-28 by about 25% to 29% and cut net profit forecasts by 32% to 35% to reflect the overseas slowdown in 1H and 3Q as well as pressure on online sales in China. Based on a target valuation of 16x forecast P/E over the next 12 months, the broker cut its TP by 24.3% from HKD206 to HKD156 and maintained an "Outperform" rating. The report said POP MART's sales fell 45% to 50% YoY in 3Q. The broker believes the weakness had largely been priced in by the market before the results release. Management guided for a 2 ppts YoY decline in gross margin in 2H, which should be better than market concerns. Management expects sales to improve QoQ in 4Q driven by holiday demand, with inventory management becoming more focused and efficient, and forecast full-year China sales to record positive growth. The broker expects the group's sales to fall 16% YoY in 2026, including a 4% increase in the mainland China market and a 42% decline overseas, while adjusted net profit for the full year is forecast to fall 29%. Full-year gross margin and adjusted net profit margin are expected to be 70% and 29.6%, down 2.1 ppts and 5.6 ppts YoY respectively, due to the overseas slowdown, overseas price adjustments, rising fixed operating expenses from store openings and lower operating leverage. (ha/da)~ AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com This article was automatically translated by AI, the Chinese version should be considered the authoritative version. AASTOCKS.com Limited does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and accepts no liability for any damages or losses arising from the use of this translation. | |