Statistics Canada reported that Canada's merchandise exports in April rose 1.6% MoM to CAD75.16 billion, a record high, supported by a 9.7% increase in energy exports, which was partly offset by a 17.5% decline in metal and non-metallic mineral exports. Excluding energy products and metal and non-metallic minerals, Canada's exports in April increased 5.1%.Canada's merchandise imports in April edged up 0.3% to CAD72.44 billion, also reaching a record high. The merchandise trade surplus widened to CAD2.72 billion, above market expectations of a CAD2.55 billion surplus. The previous figure was revised down to a surplus of CAD1.75 billion.Andrew Grantham, Senior Economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), said the latest trade data show that Canada's exports have largely returned to pre-2025 levels, although some weakness remains in sectors most affected by US tariffs.In a note to clients, he wrote that as the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement drags on, tariff uncertainty persists, potentially limiting further upside momentum in the near term. While net trade may make a solid contribution to Canada's 2Q26 GDP, this may not carry into 2H26 if trade uncertainty continues. (da/u)
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