<Research> CICC: Guinea Plans to Regulate Bauxite Exports, May Spur Alumina Prices Higher

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Guinea will officially announce final bauxite export control measures in June. In a research report, CICC stated that Guinea has a significant impact on global bauxite supply. The proposed policy requires companies to strictly match output and export volumes with mine plans and prohibits production beyond approved quotas. This implies that global bauxite supply will shift toward marginal tightening. As Guinea is a major source of Chinas bauxite imports, policy changes will directly affect the pace of raw material arrivals in China, breaking the previous loose domestic supply pattern and driving a gradual rebound in bauxite prices.

The broker noted that the alumina industry is currently on the verge of losses. On one hand, rising bauxite prices are expected to push up alumina prices from the cost side. On the other hand, tight imported ore supply may prompt some enterprises to replace production with maintenance shutdowns or even proactively cut output. The alumina supply-demand balance is therefore likely to tighten rapidly, stimulating a rebound in prices.

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In addition, following recent coal mine safety incidents in Shanxi, safety management standards for mines have been comprehensively upgraded. Intensified inspections may further tighten domestic ore supply. Coupled with the rollout of Guineas export restriction policies, both domestic and overseas bauxite prices are expected to rise in tandem, supporting alumina prices.

CICC believes that under anti-involution policies and raw material constraints, the disorderly expansion of alumina capacity is likely to improve. The upside room for prices may further open up, and industry profitability is expected to see a systematic recovery, enhancing allocation value. In the short term, the broker recommends focusing on electrolytic aluminum companies with high power and alumina self-sufficiency rates, including NANSHAN AL INTL (02610.HK) +0.660 (+1.922%) Short selling $5.74M; Ratio 11.542% , TIANSHAN ALUMINUM (002532.SZ) -0.130 (-0.863%) , CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK) -0.780 (-2.708%) Short selling $549.33M; Ratio 18.557% , CHALCO (02600.HK) +0.070 (+0.646%) Short selling $59.77M; Ratio 7.936% , NANSHAN ALUMINIUM (600219.SH) +0.020 (+0.386%) and HUATONG WIRES AND CABLES (605196.SH) +0.080 (+0.203%) . (sl/da)(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-29 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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