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<Research> Daiwa Estimates SpaceX (SPCX.US) TAM at USD28.5T, Service Revenue to Be Key Profit Driver
Daiwa issued a report noting that SpaceX (SPCX.US) recently filed its prospectus. The broker believes the IPO document places its focus on SpaceX's AI business, rather than its tra...
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<Research> Daiwa Estimates SpaceX (SPCX.US) TAM at USD28.5T, Service Revenue to Be Key Profit Driver
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Daiwa issued a report noting that SpaceX (SPCX.US) recently filed its prospectus. The broker believes the IPO document places its focus on SpaceX's AI business, rather than its traditional spacecraft and satellite operations, to justify its USD1.75 trillion to USD2 trillion valuation. SpaceX positions itself as a fully integrated player in the orbital AI data center market, covering chip manufacturing through the Terafab project, market-leading low-cost reusable rockets, strong connectivity via the Starlink satellite constellation, and AI applications such as Grok.

The prospectus suggests that service revenue or service applications will be the main profit driver. However, launch services themselves are already profitable through the reuse of first-stage rockets, and profitability could be even stronger for fully reusable rockets such as Starship. Among companies covered by Daiwa, robust growth in Starlink satellite subscribers will serve as a positive catalyst for SUNWAY COMMUNICATION (300136.SZ)  -8.300 (-6.997%)   . Positive sentiment is also expected to benefit other related stocks, including ST GREAT MICROWAVE (688270.SH)  -0.810 (-0.643%)   and SINOMACH-PI (002046.SZ)  -1.670 (-2.965%)   .

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Daiwa said SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at USD28.5 trillion, including: (1) space-enabled solutions of USD370 billion; (2) connectivity of USD1.6 trillion (including Starlink broadband of USD870 billion and Starlink Mobile of USD740 billion); and (3) AI of USD26.5 trillion (including AI infrastructure of USD2.4 trillion, consumer subscriptions of USD760 billion, digital advertising of USD600 billion, and enterprise applications of USD22.7 trillion).

Citing SpaceX's financial data, Daiwa noted that 1Q26 revenue reached USD4.694 billion, of which connectivity, space and AI contributed 69%, 13% and 17%, respectively. Net loss for the quarter was USD4.276 billion, while operating loss amounted to USD1.943 billion. The connectivity segment was the most profitable, delivering an operating margin of 36.5% (12% to 39% during 2023-2025), while the AI and space businesses dragged on operating profit, with operating margins of negative 302% and negative 107%, respectively, in 1Q26.

Daiwa added that based on its 2025 segment breakdown, SpaceX's AI business remained loss-making even at the adjusted EBITDA level, while the space business reached breakeven in 2023-2024 and achieved adjusted EBITDA profitability during 2023-2025. The space segment's operating loss of USD657 million was affected by USD3 billion in R&D investment for Starship, which the broker considers crucial for SpaceX's long-term development. (da/j)(A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

Related NewsInitial Jobless Claims for May/16 in the United States is 209K, lower than the previous value of 212K. The forecast was 210K.

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