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J. Safra Sarasin: De-escalation in Persian Gulf Remains Base Case; Oil Prices Seen Falling to USD80-90 by Yr-end
Karsten Junius, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, said that de-escalation in the Persian Gulf remains the bank's base-case scenario. Juniu...
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J. Safra Sarasin: De-escalation in Persian Gulf Remains Base Case; Oil Prices Seen Falling to USD80-90 by Yr-end
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Karsten Junius, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research at Bank J. Safra Sarasin, said that de-escalation in the Persian Gulf remains the bank's base-case scenario.

Junius noted that the Iran conflict continues to pose a short-term macro risk, not only weighing on economic growth but also keeping energy prices elevated. In view of this, the bank raised its inflation forecasts this month and expected the US and Iran to eventually reach an agreement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Before any agreement is finalized, oil prices are likely to stay high, and a delay in negotiations could even trigger a short-term spike. Nevertheless, the bank expected oil prices to retreat to USD80-90/ bbl by year-end.

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