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<Research> CMBI Raises China 2026 Export Growth Forecast to Around 8%-9%, Expects Trade Surplus to Narrow from High Base
CMBI published a report stating that Chinas exports rebounded significantly in April, mainly driven by the global boom in artificial intelligence hardware and rising demand for gr...
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<Research> CMBI Raises China 2026 Export Growth Forecast to Around 8%-9%, Expects Trade Surplus to Narrow from High Base
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CMBI published a report stating that Chinas exports rebounded significantly in April, mainly driven by the global boom in artificial intelligence hardware and rising demand for green energy products, with shipment volumes to major trading partners improving. Strong export growth will support economic resilience, manufacturing output and RMB exchange rate stability in the short term. However, the quality of growth is increasingly showing K-shaped divergence: industries benefiting from external industrial cycles are maintaining high prosperity, while domestic demand remains relatively weak. Strong import growth more reflects rising chip prices, energy and raw material costs rather than a recovery in domestic consumption demand. The extent of recent policy easing may be limited, as external demand remains robust.

The broker raised its forecast for Chinas goods export growth in 2026 from 4% to around 8% to 9%, and lifted its import growth forecast from 8% to around 12% to 14%. It also expects the trade surplus to narrow from the high level in 2025. The USD/RMB exchange rate is projected to fall to around 6.8 by mid-year, before easing slightly to 6.78 by year-end. (da/a)

Related NewsUnemployment Rate for April in China is 5.2%, lower than the previous value of 5.4%. The forecast was 5.3%.

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