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<Research>JPM: Trump-Xi Summit May Forge Framework for Further Talks; Focus on Chip, Agricultural, Aircraft, Crude Oil Deals
US President Donald Trump may travel to Beijing for a state visit next Thursday (14th) to Friday (15th), JPMorgan said in a report. Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, senior officials a...
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<Research>JPM: Trump-Xi Summit May Forge Framework for Further Talks; Focus on Chip, Agricultural, Aircraft, Crude Oil Deals
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US President Donald Trump may travel to Beijing for a state visit next Thursday (14th) to Friday (15th), JPMorgan said in a report. Ahead of the Trump-Xi summit, senior officials and relevant parties from both countries have engaged in intensive diplomatic activities and trade consultations. On April 30, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held what was described as “candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges” with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also discussed establishing a “constructive and stable strategic relationship”.

The broker noted that both parties are endeavoring to reach a potential multi-dimensional agreement during the summit. First, although China’s economy has displayed short-term resilience, both parties strongly hope to swiftly resolve the Middle East conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and pacify other potential chokepoints. On March 15, Trump urged China to provide assistance, whereas China has actively supported Middle East peace initiatives.

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A second key issue could be the mutual restrictions between China and the US in the competition over critical minerals and high-tech products. One focal point is whether the Trump administration is willing to further unwind export controls to allow China access to advanced semiconductors in exchange for China relaxing rare earth export controls.

JPMorgan stated that trade will undoubtedly be a key focus of the summit. Multiple rounds of top-tier negotiations have progressed slowly without substantive breakthroughs, particularly after the US Supreme Court's ruling on the IEEPA, which weakened the US position, and amid US requests for China's assistance in reopening the Hormuz.

The broker expected the summit to reach a framework agreement for further negotiations rather than a comprehensive trade pact. However, China may agree to substantially ramp up purchases of US soybeans and other agricultural products, in addition to aircraft from Boeing (BA.US)      , crude oil and natural gas, in order to maintain the current tariff status. Meanwhile, China hopes the US will extend the existing tariff and export control truce beyond November 10.
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