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<Research>UBS Raises 2026 CN Lithium Price Forecast by 18%, Lifts TPs for GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK), TIANQI LITHIUM (002466.SZ)
Based on strong demand for battery energy storage systems (BESS), soaring energy prices driven by Middle East conflicts supporting electric vehicle (EV) demand, and accelerating de...
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<Research>UBS Raises 2026 CN Lithium Price Forecast by 18%, Lifts TPs for GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK), TIANQI LITHIUM (002466.SZ)
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Based on strong demand for battery energy storage systems (BESS), soaring energy prices driven by Middle East conflicts supporting electric vehicle (EV) demand, and accelerating demand for electric trucks in China, UBS’ global commodities team raised global lithium price forecasts.

The broker estimated global lithium demand in 2026 to grow 16% YoY to 1.97 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), of which EV battery demand will account for 53%, up 12% YoY, while ESS batteries demand will account for 17%, up 60% YoY.

The broker slightly raised its global lithium supply forecast for 2026 by 1%, and expected global risk-weighted supply to grow about 13% YoY to 1.91 million tonnes LCE (including recycling), resulting in a shortfall of 65,000 tonnes LCE.

UBS ratings and TP for related stocks are listed below:

Stock | Investment Rating | TP
TIANQI LITHIUM A (002466.SZ)  +0.740 (+1.125%)   | Buy | RMB78.3 -> RMB93.18
GANFENG LITHIUM A (002460.SZ)  +0.570 (+0.757%)   | Buy | RMB82.79 -> RMB110.45
GANFENGLITHIUM H (01772.HK)  +0.672 (+0.995%)    Short selling $64.46M; Ratio 12.118%   | Buy | HKD74.35 -> HKD106.86
YANHU (000792.SZ)  +0.560 (+1.735%)   | Buy | RMB45 -> RMB49.8
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-05-22 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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