JPMorgan released a research report forecasting absolute share price gains for Chinese banks, though it anticipated that they may underperform the market in 2026.

The broker estimated approx. RMB110 trillion of time deposits to mature in 2026, including around RMB7 trillion of excess household deposits. This could provide liquidity support to capital markets and boost market sentiment.

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Driven by net interest income recovery and wealth management fee, JPMorgan projected moderate improvements in Chinese banks' revenue and profit growth in 2026. However, banks may underperform in a liquidity-driven rally.

Among high-dividend stocks, the broker preferred BANKCOMM (601328.SH)  -0.110 (-1.603%)   , BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $63.37M; Ratio 34.018%   and CCB (00939.HK)  -0.070 (-0.902%)    Short selling $87.99M; Ratio 21.338%   ; and BANK OF NINGBO (002142.SZ)  +0.240 (+0.841%)   , PU DEV BANK (600000.SH)  -0.240 (-2.176%)   , INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166.SH)  -0.330 (-1.643%)   and CM BANK (03968.HK)  +0.020 (+0.043%)    Short selling $76.07M; Ratio 21.038%   (600036.SH)  -0.320 (-0.826%)   for better growth potential. JPMorgan expected growthstocks to outperform high-dividend stocks.

Therefore, the broker upgraded MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)  -0.060 (-1.587%)    Short selling $7.13M; Ratio 3.272%   's H-shares from Neutral to Overweight, but downgraded ABC (01288.HK)  -0.100 (-1.835%)    Short selling $14.50M; Ratio 10.140%   's H-shares from Overweight to Neutral.

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JPMorgan's ratings and target prices for Chinese banks are listed below:

Stock | Rating | TP
------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------------
BANK OF CHINA (601988.SH)  -0.090 (-1.654%)   | Overweight | RMB6.3 → RMB6.6
------------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------
CITIC BANK (00998.HK)  -0.090 (-1.255%)    Short selling $8.16M; Ratio 22.821%   | Overweight | $8.85 → $9.05
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CCB (601939.SH)  -0.130 (-1.441%)   | Overweight | RMB11.3 → RMB11.35
----------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------
CMB (600036.SH)  -0.320 (-0.826%)   | Overweight | RMB54 → RMB52
CM BANK (03968.HK)  +0.020 (+0.043%)    Short selling $76.07M; Ratio 21.038%   | Overweight | $60 → $61
----------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------
ICBC (601398.SH)  -0.160 (-2.122%)   | Overweight | RMB8.9 → RMB9
ICBC (01398.HK)  -0.070 (-1.109%)    Short selling $69.43M; Ratio 22.832%   | Overweight | $7.3 → $7.35
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDUSTRIAL BANK (601166.SH)  -0.330 (-1.643%)   | Neutral → Overweight | RMB24 → RMB24.5
----------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------
AGRICULTURAL BANK (601288.SH)  -0.200 (-2.789%)   | Neutral | RMB7.5 → RMB7.3
ABC (01288.HK)  -0.100 (-1.835%)    Short selling $14.50M; Ratio 10.140%   | Overweight → Neutral | $6.6 → $6.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BANKCOMM (601328.SH)  -0.110 (-1.603%)   | Overweight | RMB8.65 → RMB8.4
BANKCOMM (03328.HK)  -0.040 (-0.609%)    Short selling $4.42M; Ratio 9.907%   | Overweight | $8 → $7.85
------------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------
EVERBRIGHT BANK (601818.SH)  -0.020 (-0.590%)   | Neutral | RMB3.6 → RMB3.25
CEB BANK (06818.HK)  -0.040 (-1.250%)    Short selling $1.98M; Ratio 7.273%   | Neutral | $3.25 → $3.1
-----------------------------------------------
MINSHENG BANK (600016.SH)  -0.040 (-1.053%)   | Overweight | RMB5.1 → RMB4.65
MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)  -0.060 (-1.587%)    Short selling $7.13M; Ratio 3.272%   | Neutral → Overweight | $4.8 → $4.45
---------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------
HUAXIA BANK (600015.SH)  -0.050 (-0.762%)   | Neutral | RMB8.2 → RMB7.5
--- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PING AN BANK (000001.SZ)  -0.050 (-0.448%)   | Neutral | RMB11.3 → RMB11
-------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------
PSBC (01658.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $13.45M; Ratio 34.356%   | Neutral | $5.7 → $5.5
------------------------------------------ -------------------------------------------------------
PU DEV BANK (600000.SH)  -0.240 (-2.176%)   | Overweight | RMB15.7 → RMB14.6
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2026-01-21 12:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)