Citi has released a report forecasting the Chinese banks under its coverage to log a 1.4% YoY increase in their 3Q25 revenue, as the slowdown in net interest margin contraction and decent fee income offset the impact of weak loan growth and trading income.

The broker specifically estimated that Chinese banks would outpace the market in 4Q25 due to escalating geopolitical risks, which would prompt investors to shift funds from cyclical industries to defensive sectors, the potential slowdown in government bond yields, which could help widen the spread between dividend yields and government bond yields and attract yield-seeking investors, and stronger capital inflows from improved insurance premium growth in 4Q25.

Related NewsCiti Ratings, TPs on CN Banks (Table)
Citi named ICBC (01398.HK)  -0.070 (-1.190%)    Short selling $417.97M; Ratio 25.014%   , CCB (00939.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)    Short selling $929.31M; Ratio 31.992%   , and BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)  -0.020 (-0.465%)    Short selling $327.63M; Ratio 34.897%   as its top picks. Among its covered Chinese banks, the broker also highlighted that CM BANK (03968.HK)  -0.260 (-0.527%)    Short selling $632.47M; Ratio 54.708%   appeared to benefit the most from strong capital market sentiment, potentially outpacing its peers in fee income growth, while MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK)  -0.050 (-1.196%)    Short selling $33.24M; Ratio 26.986%   may deliver weaker 3Q25 results as dragged by higher real estate-related impairments.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-10-17 16:25.)