Morgan Stanley, in its research report, forecast a mediocre overall performance for Chinese telecoms in 3Q25. Growth in AI-related business revenue may not be sufficient to offset the weakness in traditional revenue, and the broker remains cautious on 4Q25. Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating for CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)  -0.400 (-0.467%)    Short selling $389.36M; Ratio 25.522%   , CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)  -0.020 (-0.348%)    Short selling $102.41M; Ratio 21.533%   , CHINA UNICOM (00762.HK)  -0.110 (-1.202%)    Short selling $66.01M; Ratio 27.479%   , and CHINA TOWER (00788.HK)  -0.260 (-2.230%)    Short selling $41.77M; Ratio 18.309%   , while CHINACOMSERVICE (00552.HK)  -0.030 (-0.658%)    Short selling $14.69M; Ratio 23.226%   was rated Equal-weight.

Morgan Stanley expected industry service revenue to inch up YoY in 3Q25, with growth slowing compared to 2Q25. In wake of the potential impact of US-China tariffs, the outlook for 4Q25 was considered uncertain, with traditional businesses continuing to face deflationary pressures and weak macroeconomic conditions.

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The broker trimmed its earnings forecasts for the three major Chinese telecoms, reducing service revenue forecasts for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom by 2.1- 2.8%, 3%, and 1.7-2.2% respectively for 2025-27. The revenue forecast for China Tower was lowered by 1% for the same period. The target price for China Tower remained at $12; China Mobile at $90; China Telecom's lowered from $6.5 to $6; China Unicom's remained unchanged at $9.5; and China Communications Services' at $4.3.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-10-17 16:25.)