US President Donald Trump announced last Friday (10th) that, from 1 November, an additional 100% tariff will be imposed on China, along with export controls on all key software, according to SPDB International's research report.

The broker was not surprised by the sudden escalation of the US-China tariff conflict during the 'truce' period. Despite the re-emergence of tariff conflict, SPDB International still believed that US-China tariffs are likely to remain unchanged in 2H25.

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From the negotiations since the US-China tariff 'truce', the outcomes of each meeting have been more about partial or overall interest exchanges. After the first meeting, both sides agreed to mutually cancel retaliatory tariffs and temporarily suspend the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff.

After the second meeting, the US canceled the requirement for export licenses for chip design software and ethane to China, while China lifted export controls on rare earths. In the third meeting, both sides agreed to extend the tariff suspension period by 90 days, while the fourth meeting mainly focused on TikTok and finalizing the APEC summit meeting between the US and Chinese leaders.

However, the US economy is also not immune to a tariff war. If the US imposes an additional 100% tariff on China in November, it could increase the impact of US tariff policy on the US CPI this year to 1.8-3.6 ppts, much higher than the current 1.1-2.1 ppts, although the broker's model seems to overestimate the existing impact. Potential inflationary pressures could delay the US Fed's rate cut decisions.

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