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<Research>JPM Likes JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) on Stable Growth w/ Rating Kept at Overweight/ TP $16
JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) has outperformed its parent company, JD-SW (09618.HK), the market and most other Chinese logistics service providers over the past 3 months, with a 15% incr...
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<Research>JPM Likes JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK) on Stable Growth w/ Rating Kept at Overweight/ TP $16
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JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)  +0.240 (+1.714%)    Short selling $9.47M; Ratio 7.708%   has outperformed its parent company, JD-SW (09618.HK)  -2.100 (-1.575%)    Short selling $470.92M; Ratio 22.711%   , the market and most other Chinese logistics service providers over the past 3 months, with a 15% increase in stock price, JPMorgan released a research report saying.

This impressive performance is similar to the 20% surge of SF HOLDING (06936.HK)  +1.300 (+2.889%)    Short selling $11.91M; Ratio 6.377%   , demonstrating strong resilience in a fiercely competitive market for asset-heavy, high-end logistics firms.

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Although JD-SW's entry into the food delivery sector, directly competing with giants like MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)  -2.300 (-1.711%)    Short selling $1.15B; Ratio 15.125%   and BABA-W (09988.HK)  -1.700 (-1.413%)    Short selling $869.49M; Ratio 9.268%   (BABA.US)      , raised some concerns, JPMorgan expected JD LOGISTICS' financial impact to be positive starting from 3Q25, particularly in terms of revenue growth.

In the long term, JD LOGISTICS anticipated that new business will remain profitable, with JD-SW's reasonable pricing ensuring profitability.

Given the strategic measures and favorable market conditions, the broker kept rating at Overweight for JD LOGISTICS, believing it can fully capitalize on regulatory changes and expand its high-end logistics and food delivery businesses.

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Based on the estimated FY2026 EV/EBITDA at 3x, considering that approximately 30% of JD LOGISTICS' revenue comes from its parent company JD-SW, with no shareholder returns now, there is about a 40% discount to the industry average valuation. The broker's target price for December 2026 is $16.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-24 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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