After seven consecutive years of downswing, the Hong Kong real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with residential properties expected to outperform commercial real estate, Goldman Sachs said in a report.

However, the relatively slow economic growth and the about 2-3% HKD/ USD terminal rates may suggest a slow recovery for the local real estate sector. Despite downward revisions in EPS and DPS forecasts by the market, local real estate stocks have risen by an average of 16% YTD.

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Goldman Sachs noted that SHK PPT (00016.HK)  -0.500 (-0.538%)    Short selling $110.85M; Ratio 33.809%   and CK ASSET (01113.HK)  +0.250 (+0.681%)    Short selling $94.58M; Ratio 57.365%   , rated Buy, were expected to lead in EPS and DPS growth, while HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK)  +0.200 (+0.735%)    Short selling $98.84M; Ratio 41.688%   , rated Sell, and SINO LAND (00083.HK)  +0.010 (+0.112%)    Short selling $9.44M; Ratio 15.097%   , downgraded to Sell, lagged behind.

The broker noted three key concerns regarding SINO LAND: 1) its profits were overly reliant on interest income from fixed deposits, which faced pressure as interest rates decline; 2) scrip option for dividends diluted share count and eroded BVPS/ EPS growth; and 3) the stock underperformed peers amid improvements in the real estate market.

The broker also upgraded NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK)  -0.050 (-0.821%)    Short selling $25.79M; Ratio 19.068%   from Sell to Neutral, citing improved liquidity conditions following the recent completion of HK$88 billion refinancing and deferred perpetual bond dividends; asset return or equity return was expected to improve given property development sales bookings; operating cash flow was expected to offset financing and investment cash flow in the medium term.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-24 16:25.)

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