China's 2Q25 GDP slightly beat market consensus, but was in line with Goldman Sachs' forecast, Goldman Sachs released a research report saying. Following a 'truce' in the US-China trade war, accelerated export growth drove increased output in the chemical, computer and related equipment manufacturing sectors, leading to a significant rebound in production growth in June.

Fixed asset investment growth noticeably slowed, with widespread weakness across sectors, partly due to extreme weather conditions and the continued slump in the real estate market.

Related NewsFixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY for Jun in China is 2.8%, lower than the previous value of 3.7%. The forecast was 3.7%.
Retail sales growth in June also declined significantly, as 2025 618 online shopping festival started earlier than usual, shifting some demand to May, coupled with a shortage of funds for trade-in programs for consumer goods in some regions. The services sector output index remained relatively stable YoY, with only moderation.

Goldman Sachs recently raised its 2025/ 2026 full-year real GDP growth forecasts to 4.7%/ 3.9%, from 4.6%/ 3.8%, respectively. The broker now expected China's real GDP growth to decline from 5.3% in 1H25 to 4.3% in 2H25, mainly due to the impact of US tariff hike and a high base effect, particularly in 4Q25.