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<Research>CMBI Reduces Alibaba (BABA.US)'s TP to USD141.2; Greater Investment in Instant Retail Weighs Down ST Earnings
BABA-W (09988.HK) (BABA.US) is ramping up its investment in instant retail to establish a long-term advantage in e-commerce development, according to CMBI's research report.For...
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<Research>CMBI Reduces Alibaba (BABA.US)'s TP to USD141.2; Greater Investment in Instant Retail Weighs Down ST Earnings
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BABA-W (09988.HK)  +0.300 (+0.264%)    Short selling $2.59B; Ratio 15.531%   (BABA.US)      is ramping up its investment in instant retail to establish a long-term advantage in e-commerce development, according to CMBI's research report.

For 1FQF ended June 2025, CMBI expects (1) cloud business revenue to speed up QoQ; (2) Taobao & Tmall Group's monetization rate to continue increasing YoY; and (3) losses in Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) to continue narrowing YoY.

Related NewsNomura Expects BABA-W's 1QFY26 Instant E-commerce Biz to Log Loss ~RMB10B
The intensified investment in instant retail, however, will weigh down short-term earnings, because of which CMBI anticipates an investment of around RMB10 billion and RMB20 billion in 1QFY26 and 2QFY26, respectively, potentially leading to a YoY drop in the group's adjusted EBITA by 16% and 45%.

CMBI cut its target price for Alibaba's US shares by 9% to USD141.2 from USD155.5. Believing that the company will still be a core beneficiary of the AI theme, the broker suggested that investors should look beyond short-term earnings fluctuations. The rating was kept as Buy.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-16 16:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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