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<Research>UBS Lifts TPs for CHINAHONGQIAO, CHALCO as Global Aluminum Demand Resilient Amid Easing Trade War
As the trade war eases, industrial metals have largely recovered their losses after the "Liberation Day", reducing the risk of demand recession, UBS wrote in its research...
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<Research>UBS Lifts TPs for CHINAHONGQIAO, CHALCO as Global Aluminum Demand Resilient Amid Easing Trade War
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As the trade war eases, industrial metals have largely recovered their losses after the "Liberation Day", reducing the risk of demand recession, UBS wrote in its research report.

In UBS' opinion, even though macro uncertainties have somewhat cooled down, the impact of the trade war is not entirely over. It will remain cautious about the short-term outlook, including the possibility of uncertainties leading to a softening of end demand. However, long-term drivers and moderate stimulus measures in China (power grid/ appliances) have shored up generally robust demand, along with a reversal of pre-tariff purchases.

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Because of the slowdown in global economic growth and the downturn in China's real estate and construction sectors in 2023 and 2024, aluminum is under some pressure, UBS said. In the short term, aluminum demand will be suppressed by the following factors: the impact of trade war uncertainties on end demand, the adjustment of pre-tariff stockpiling behavior, and the slowdown in China's solar installations as affected by adjustments in renewable energy tariffs.

As a result, UBS estimated global aluminum demand in 2025 to be below trend growth, but the easing of the trade war and resilient demand since YTD have indicated that the market is weakening rather than sliding into recession.

UBS added its target price for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378.HK)  +0.140 (+0.770%)    Short selling $71.72M; Ratio 21.606%   by 27% from HKD16.5 to HKD21 and for CHALCO (02600.HK)  -0.010 (-0.180%)    Short selling $10.77M; Ratio 5.962%   (601600.SH)  -0.040 (-0.559%)   from HKD5.7 to HKD6.2, both rated as Buy.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-16 16:25.) (A Shares quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.)

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