Morgan Stanley has released a report forecasting that MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) -1.100 (-0.872%) Short selling $1.14B; Ratio 20.121% 's core local commerce business will generate revenue of RMB67 billion in 2Q25, up 10% YoY, while its operating profit will dive 48% YoY to RMB8 billion. Operating profit from food delivery and instant sales is expected to drop RMB8 billion YoY. MEITUAN-W's peak daily order volume has already surpassed 120 million, far ahead of BABA-W (09988.HK) +1.500 (+1.322%) Short selling $1.71B; Ratio 15.246% 's 80 million orders.Regarding the food delivery war, MEITUAN-W, in Morgan Stanley's estimate, will maintain its leading position even though its market share may drop from 70-75% to above 65%. The total gross merchandise value of the instant e-commerce market is expected to exceed RMB2 trillion by 2030, but the market will be divided among multiple players. Long-term profit forecasts will also be lower, with food delivery GTV profit margin expected to fall from above 3% to 2.4%, unit economics from 1.5 to 1.15, and instant sales GTV profit margin from 2% to 1.5%.Related NewsCMS: TPs for Alibaba/ Meituan/ JD.com Cut as Intensified Competition Dents Earnings VisibilityMorgan Stanley lowered its target price for MEITUAN-W from HKD160 to HKD150, with an Overweight rating unchanged. The order of its preference was: Alibaba (BABA.US) > MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) -1.100 (-0.872%) Short selling $1.14B; Ratio 20.121% > JD.com (JD.US) .(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-16 12:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)