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<Research>UBS Expects BABA-W (09988.HK) 1FQ Adj. EBITA to Drop 15%, Slashes TP to $154
UBS released a research report predicting that BABA-W (09988.HK)(BABA.US) will see a 1% YoY increase in 1FQ26 revenue to RMB246 billion, reflecting the impact of divesting assets s...
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<Research>UBS Expects BABA-W (09988.HK) 1FQ Adj. EBITA to Drop 15%, Slashes TP to $154
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UBS released a research report predicting that BABA-W (09988.HK)  +1.400 (+1.233%)    Short selling $1.71B; Ratio 15.246%   (BABA.US)      will see a 1% YoY increase in 1FQ26 revenue to RMB246 billion, reflecting the impact of divesting assets such as Sun Art Retail and Intime.

Customer management revenue (CMR) is expected to grow by 11%, primarily driven by an increase in basic software service fees and commissions. However, increased investment in instant retail will drag down adjusted EBITA by 15% YoY to RMB38.1 billion, missing the market consensus of RMB46.1 billion.

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Due to the increased investment in instant retail, UBS lowered its FY2026-FY2028 EPS forecasts for BABA-W by 7-21%, and slashed its target price from $174 to $154. The valuation is calculated based on a composite approach, and the stock price is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to market competition situation, with rating at Buy.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-16 12:25.) (Real-time Streaming US Stocks Quote; Except All OTC quotes are at least 15 minutes delayed.)

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