Morgan Stanley has released a report predicting that Asian banks would deliver sturdy operating performance in 2Q25 and were likely to maintain robust wealth management income, especially supported by business activity in Hong Kong. At the same time, ongoing demand for FX and interest rate hedging was helping to keep capital markets income strong.

The broker expects that a decline in the HIBOR will heap some pressure on net interest income, but for HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)  +0.450 (+0.475%)    Short selling $249.72M; Ratio 23.879%   , better net interest income in the UK and favorable FX factors should provide some offset.

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Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley doesn't anticipate any major issues with credit quality. With various banks expected to continue share buybacks in 2Q, it is predicted that STANCHART (02888.HK)  +1.800 (+1.381%)    Short selling $73.76M; Ratio 38.346%   will buy back USD1.5 billion in shares, while HSBC HOLDINGS will repurchase USD2.5 billion in shares.

The broker kept its target prices for HSBC HOLDINGS and STANCHART unchanged at HKD90 and HKD121.5, both with an Overweight rating remaining in place.

HSBC HOLDINGS is anticipated to announce its 2Q25 results on July 30. Morgan Stanley forecasted its pre-tax earnings to sink by 26% YoY or 31% QoQ to USD6.556 billion, compared to the market consensus of USD7.596 billion, while its adjusted pre-tax earnings will reach USD8.206 billion, down 10% YoY or 16% QoQ.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-07-07 16:25.)

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