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<Research>G Sachs Advances Fed Rate Cut Forecast to Sep w/ Another 25bps Cuts Each in Oct/ Dec
Goldman Sachs advanced its forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September, as preliminary evidence suggests that the tariff impact is slightly less than expected, while other defl...
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<Research>G Sachs Advances Fed Rate Cut Forecast to Sep w/ Another 25bps Cuts Each in Oct/ Dec
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Goldman Sachs advanced its forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September, as preliminary evidence suggests that the tariff impact is slightly less than expected, while other deflationary forces have been stronger. The broker believed that Fed officials share its view that tariffs will only have a one-time effect on price levels.

Goldman Sachs anticipated rate cuts of 25 bps each in September, October and December, and still expected two more 25 bps cuts in 2026, thus lowering its terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25%.

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The recent Middle East conflicts serve as a reminder that new policy shocks may emerge, Goldman Sachs added. However, unless the worst outcomes occur, these shocks may create a "wall of worry" for markets to climb.

As markets relax again, other risks may come back into focus: new tariff news, more visible weakening US economic growth and employment data, or upcoming fiscal plans. The broker remained most confident in some key mid-term trends, and believed that the USD weakening path will continue.

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