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CICC Forecasts CN 2025 GDP to Stabilize at 5%, Expects Fed to Cut Rates Twice in 4Q
CICC forecast mainland China’s GDP growth to remain stable in 2H25; despite slower than 2024, it should still hold at 5%, among which domestic demand will contribute more to ...
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CICC Forecasts CN 2025 GDP to Stabilize at 5%, Expects Fed to Cut Rates Twice in 4Q
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CICC forecast mainland China’s GDP growth to remain stable in 2H25; despite slower than 2024, it should still hold at 5%, among which domestic demand will contribute more to GDP than in 2024, while exports will contribute less.

Despite tariff threats, exports were expected to stay resilient in 2H25 given China’s strong supply chain and competitive products. Speaking of the RMB, he saw upside potential, driven by sustained export strength and a weakening USD that has not yet bottomed out.

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CICC believed the U.S. economy may not perform as poorly as markets expect. The broker estimated the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in 4Q25, by 25bps each time, and considered 3.75-4% a reasonable range.

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