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<Research>Citi: Rising Oil Prices Unlikely to Change CN Deflationary Trend, 10 Bp Policy Rate Cut Still Expected in 2H25
Due to rising geopolitical risks, the situations in Iran, Israel, and the US pose risks to higher oil prices, Citi released a research report noting.In Citi's estimates, China&...
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<Research>Citi: Rising Oil Prices Unlikely to Change CN Deflationary Trend, 10 Bp Policy Rate Cut Still Expected in 2H25
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Due to rising geopolitical risks, the situations in Iran, Israel, and the US pose risks to higher oil prices, Citi released a research report noting.

In Citi's estimates, China's CPI could rise by about 0.2% and PPI by about 1% for every 10% increase in oil prices, though this is unlikely to alter China's overall deflationary trend.

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Considering China's USD325 billion in oil imports last year, it is estimated that every 10% increase in oil prices could reduce its current account balance by 7.7% and have less than a -0.1 ppt impact on GDP growth.

As concerns about oil-driven inflationary pressure potentially curbing monetary easing policies seemed premature at this stage, Citi continued to expect a 10 bp cut in China's policy rate and a 50 bp cut in its RRR in 2H25.

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