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Cinda Securities Lists 3 Scenarios for Evolution of US-CN Tariffs
Cinda Securities released a report detailing three possible directions for the evolution of U.S.-China tariffs:Scenario 1: If the suspended 24% tariffs are reinstated, the U.S. tar...
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Cinda Securities released a report detailing three possible directions for the evolution of U.S.-China tariffs:

Scenario 1: If the suspended 24% tariffs are reinstated, the U.S. tariff on Chinese goods would rise to 54% (30% + 24%), and China’s tariff on U.S. goods would increase to 34% (10% + 24%).

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Scenario 2: If the suspended 24% tariffs are permanently canceled, the current tariff levels would remain, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese goods and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods.

Scenario 3: If the 24% suspended tariffs are permanently canceled and fentanyl-related tariffs are partially lifted, the U.S. tariff on Chinese goods could drop to 10%. China’s 10% tariff on U.S. goods might be used as leverage to negotiate fentanyl tariff adjustments.

Besides, drawing from the Trump 1.0 era and outcomes of trade disputes with other countries, a new trade agreement between the U.S. and China could be negotiated to further adjust tariffs.

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