BABA-W (09988.HK)  +2.100 (+1.665%)    Short selling $1.24B; Ratio 8.747%   was expected to announce its 4FQ results (ended March 31, 2025) next Thursday, May 15. On the back of improved e-commerce GMV growth, accelerated cloud expansion fueled by the Deepseek effect, and narrowed losses in new businesses, four brokers predicted that Alibaba’s non-GAAP net profit for 4FQ to range from RMB28.724 billion to RMB34.668 billion, compared to RMB24.418 billion in the same quarter last year, reflecting a YoY elevation of 17.6-42%, with a median of RMB32 billion, up 31% YoY, according to our website's compilation. JP Morgan noted the market may overlook the impact of one-time disposal losses from Alibaba’s sale of SUNART RETAIL (06808.HK)  0.000 (0.000%)   on last quarter’s non-GAAP net profit.

UBS foresaw market focus on TTG (Taobao and Tmall Group)’s outlook, particularly GMV, with e-commerce strategy updates under the new management team (in place since November 2024) being a key highlight. On CMR, attention will center on growth acceleration following increased penetration of site-wide promotional tools among merchants. Given ongoing user investments, the timing of a profit margin rebound is also a market concern. Recently, JD-SW (09618.HK)  +3.800 (+2.774%)    Short selling $310.53M; Ratio 13.418%   launched “Miaosong” to challenge MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)  +1.400 (+1.019%)    Short selling $2.09B; Ratio 27.644%   “Instashopping”, while Alibaba’s Taobao rolled out its “Taobao Instant Commerce” feature across dozens of cities, and Ele.me joined the fray with RMB10 billion in subsidies. Investors are keen on Alibaba management’s views and strategic guidance regarding competition in this sector.

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Brokers│4QFY25 non-GAAP net profit forecast (RMB)│YoY change
Deutsche Bank │34.668 billion│ +42.0%
Citi │ 32.702 billion │ +33.9%
Morgan Stanley │ 31.296 billion│ +28.2%
Goldman Sachs │ 28.724 billion│ +17.6%
Calculated based on Alibaba's non-GAAP net profit of RMB24.418 billion in 4QFY24.
(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2025-05-13 16:25.)