According to CICC's Hong Kong stock market strategy report, the Hong Kong stock market's performance over the past month was largely in line with the broker's expectations.

In CICC's estimate, under an optimistic scenario where market sentiment recovers to pre-tariff shock levels (such as progress made in tariff talks) and earnings have not been revised downward (policy hedging), the HSI could return to the 23,000–24,000 level.

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At the sector level, the short-term focus lies on dividend and tech growth. For the medium to long term, it still needs time for tariff talks and China's stimulus measures to be clearer, though the two are interrelated.

1) Within domestic demand, as broad consumption and pro-cyclical property and infrastructure sectors are highly dependent on the strength of stimulus, the threshold is relatively high. In contrast, tech internet, new consumption, and domestic substitution sectors are driven by domestic demand but are not entirely reliant on stimulus, making them long-term beneficiaries.

2) For tech hardware, home appliances, machinery, and household goods, major demand comes from overseas markets outside the US, and they already have a certain market share and strong competitiveness, so structural opportunities may gradually emerge, though investors need to pay close attention to individual stocks.

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3) Sectors such as container shipping, air cargo, and medical consumables, where major demand comes from the US, have limited re-export channels and weaker bargaining power, and may face greater impact.