Morgan Stanley expected in a report that AIA (01299.HK)  +3.300 (+6.111%)    Short selling $1.41B; Ratio 18.616%   's value of new business (VNB) in 1Q24 would elevate 19% YoY on an actual exchange rate (AER) basis and 23% on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, driven by strong growth in the Mainland, Hong Kong and Thailand. The broker considered AIA's margins to have bottomed out and believed its financials were recovering.

The broker maintained AIA's Overweight rating and its target price of $94.

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Morgan Stanley expected Mainland China to be the key driver of AIA's VNB, with VNB for 1Q from this market estimated to hike 26% YoY in AER terms, mainly due to a low base of comparison given Covid still plagued in January 2023, while customer demand remained strong in the quarter. In Hong Kong, VNB is estimated to lift 27% in 1Q, with steady growth in the local market and a QoQ increase in Mainland Chinese Visitors. The broker would keep monitoring the regulatory news but believed the impact would be minimal.

In the ASEAN countries, AIA's performance in 1Q was solid, with Thailand the highlight and India slowing slightly but still growing at a healthy rate, the broker commented.

(HK stocks quote is delayed for at least 15 mins.Short Selling Data as at 2024-04-29 16:25.)

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