Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that RUSAL (00486.HK)  -0.010 (-0.240%)   is preliminary estimating that new sanctions imposed by the UK and the US could negatively affect annual sales by 1.5 million tonnes, which, based on last year's sales of 4.2 million tonnes, would mean that as much as 36% of its sales may be at risk.

RUSAL could be forced to cut production, the sources said, comparing the situation to 2008 when the global financial crisis hit demand hard.

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However, these preliminary estimates are at odds with the views of most Western analysts. Analysts believe that the sanctions imposed on Russian metal will have a limited impact on underlying supply and demand, as the US and the UK have banned shipments of Russian-produced aluminium, copper and nickel to exchanges including the London Metal Exchange (LME), but the sanctions do not prohibit producers from selling the metal to traders or consumers.

RUSAL issued a statement yesterday (15 Apr), saying that the new sanctions would not affect the company's ability to supply, as RUSAL's global logistics and distribution solutions, banking system, overall production and quality system would not be affected.

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