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PBOC Lu Lei: China's 2016 GDP Growth About 6.5%, Small Room for Monetary Policy
Lu Lei, head of Research Bureau of PBOC, in his report, said in general, China's economy will still continue its downward trend in the short term with a relatively large quarterly ...
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PBOC Lu Lei: China's 2016 GDP Growth About 6.5%, Small Room for Monetary Policy
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Lu Lei, head of Research Bureau of PBOC, in his report, said in general, China's economy will still continue its downward trend in the short term with a relatively large quarterly volatility, predicting around 6.5% GDP growth for 2016. The room for monetary policy is relatively small, as an interest rate and RRR cut will cause the capital flow towards high-risk assets, and further relaxation of monetary policy may exert bigger pressure of capital outflow under the background of rate hikes from the Fed.

As for medium- and long-term, China's economic growth may face an L-shaped growth stage, and when will the rebound take place depends on the stimulation on both supply and demand, as well as the force and effectiveness of supply-side reform.

The report says in 2016, China's economy will dive in a strenuous pace as the growth will still decline. He expects the CPI for 2016 will grow around 1.1% to 1.5% with a median of 1.3%; the PPI will decline 3% to 5%, a median of dropping 4%; the growth of M2 and social financing scale maintain between 11% to 13%. Also, how to deleverage might also be a hard choice to make.
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