HMIN will be added to the NASDAQ China Index. A reconfirmation of increasing price and trading volume.
1) The NASDAQ OMX Group announced the results of the annual re-ranking of the NASDAQ China Index (CHXN).
Home Inns is one of the 6 stocks that will be added to the Index with effective date on Monday, March 22, 2010.
However, there are 6 stocks will be removed from the Index. Details of relevant stocks listed in the Table-1.
2) CHXN is a modified market capitalization-weighted index, designed to track the performance of a set of U.S. listed
companies that are headquartered in China (including Hong Kong). The index groups a total of 30 largest Chinese
companies that are listed and actively traded on one of the three major U.S. stock exchanges. (Full list of the weighing
are listed in Table-2) It began with a base value of 150.00 On May 7, 2007 and ended 181.01 on Mar 16, 2010.
3) Although CHXN is just one of the nearly 2000 diverse indexes maintained by NASDAQ OMX that has no publicly
traded derivatives, according to our knowledge, we still think the nomination received by HMIN reconfirmed the
stock’s increasing trading volume and stock price in the past one year. As shown in Figue-1, the average close price
in 2010YTD is US$33.62/ADS vs. US$28.24/ADS in the same period in 2008, and the trading volume in 2010YTD is
0.56m ADS vs. 0.40m ADS. That calculates a 20% price increase and a 40% volume lift.
IPO of competitors, not really big threat. Strengthened relationship with existing and new alliances.
1) The hottest issue in the China budget hotel industry these days, is that China Lodging Group (HTHT US) seeking IPO
in NASDAQ. HTHT is better known as Hanting Inns and Hotels, the 5th market share holder in Mainland China
running a 236 hotel chain (173 self-operated and 63 franchised). Hanting, offering 9m ADSs, has set a price range
US$10.25 to US$12.25 for a deal size between US$92.25m and US$110.25m. If the 15% greenshoe is exercised in
full, the total proceeds could increase to as much as $126.8m.
2) Ctrip (CTRP US), the No. 1 travel booking service provider in China and the biggest shareholder of Home Inns
(holding 18.2%), raised US$200m just in this month. It has announced to subscribe and purchase a total of ~8%
shares of Hanting after its IPO with about US$50m-58m cash, or up to US$59m if greenshoe exercised in full. In
addition, Ctrip entered into an agreement to acquire a 15% equity interest in BTG-Jianguo Hotels & Resorts with an
option to acquire another 10% within one year. The target is a subsidiary of Beijing Tourism Group, an SOE and the
third largest shareholder of Home Inns (holding 17.5%).
3) We think the listing of the peers, Hangting and 7Days (listed in Nov.09) hotels can benefit the trading volume of the
company. Hotel and lodging is a well-known business among investors and the fact that there are two clear
comparables to benchmark the Company’s No.1 position against could be helpful. Moreover, the acts taken by Ctrip
actually make Hanting an alliance rather than rival to the company. We believe Home Inns is still a very important
member in the more closely-related and strengthening Ctrip-BTG league.
It is time to Accumulate. Budget hotel chains are still underrepresented in China if compared with data in developed
countries. We believe there is enough room in Mainland China for all the major players to expand in the next 3-5 years
alongside with the policy-supported and inevitable consumer rising in China. Home Inns is still the largest budget hotel
chain in China with a clear leading position. The closing price at US$31.61/ADS on 16 Mar, 2010 reflecting 12.3x
Price/EBITDA according to our FY10 estimates and 13.5x consensus estimates. We think it is a good time to
Accumulate. Maintain TP at US$37.00/ADS.
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